Metaphors for 2026

Planning for Metropolitan Change

Rachel Franklin (@rsfrankl)

Center for Geographic Analysis | Harvard University

2026-06-23

Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

—Kenneth Boulding

1. A rising tide lifts all boats MPOs

We’re accustomed to uneven growth in a wider context of expansion. We’re about to find out what happens when the tide goes out.

Categories of US Population Change, 1950–2020

2. Siphons

(imagine a giant—spatially and demographically distributed—sucking sound)

One area’s gains are another’s loss.

What happens when there’s nothing left to siphon?

3. [Cloudy] crystal balls

Predicting the future is easier when nothing is changing much.

Harder when the wider policy landscape is unpredictable.

4. Magnets

Relying on place characteristics to attract other places’s people (and reproductive potential)

5. Balance Sheets

Between 2000 and 2012–2016

Between 2000 and 2012–2016

6. World Cup

Challenging the premise that, to grow, all that is required is to beat everyone else.

Immediate takeaways

  • Aging
  • Below-replacement level fertility
  • Housing challenges that don’t evaporate with decline
  • Transport demand might not either
  • Regional and global interdependence
  • Uncertainty

The End.